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As has been flagged in previous reports, Regulus highlighted that the top 1% of active customers accounts for almost 50% of black market revenue across Europe. This follows a similar trend across licensed gambling as the report highlights “online gambling is a consumer discretionary expenditure item. This means a large proportion of expenditure is concentrated into a relatively small number of players.”
In its market-specific breakdown, the report noted a “rapid reduction in channelling” in the UK, following the increased use of affordability checks.
The remote gaming duty hike from 21% to 40% in April is also expected to have a significant impact on the black market, with Regulus estimating it could drive the market to be worth up to €1 billion, as consumers choose illegal offerings to access unrestricted bonuses.
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“The video itself is the game,” Yashin explains. “We are as quick as crash games, but the pattern and the feel are more like betting. We are combining two different worlds – betting and quick games.”
The rise of prediction markets reflects the same broader trend: consumers increasingly want a simple, intuitive way to take a position on what happens next. Swipe Games brings that behaviour into a casino format, turning short-form content into an instantly playable experience with outcomes revealed in seconds.
If Swipe Games’ proposition is unfamiliar, Yashin says the speed of the industry’s response suggests it is not difficult to understand.
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Meanwhile, on a post that received 1.2 million views, Manning joked: “Might have to put the pads back on.” It prompted Sherman to retort, “now let’s try this on the field”, in reference to the prediction market app.
The 2026 NFL season arguably marks the most contentious battle to attract customers interested in sports betting and predictions, dating back to the historic PASPA decision. For the first full NFL season, traditional sportsbooks such as DraftKings will offer sports-event contracts in the three most populous US states – California, Texas and Florida.
Unlike regulated sportsbooks, prediction markets allow customers between the ages of 18 and 21 to trade on sports-event contracts. Craig Carton, a sports talk host with WFAN 660 AM in New York, criticised the athletes for their endorsement of Polymarket. Carton, a recovering compulsive gambler, opined that the “unregulated” gambling markets are driving Americans into bankruptcy and kids out of school. Regulated books prohibit those under 21 from betting on their platform, leading Carton to question the celebrities for promoting the company.
