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The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.

“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”

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The competition between prediction markets and sportsbooks is intense and there is some evidence that the former is encroaching on the latter’s customer base.

A survey by Fullstory, a behavioral data analytics company, says that amid the evolution of yes/no exchanges, 60% of bettors said prediction markets are altering how they use sportsbooks with 35% admitting that they’ve reduced usage of traditional sports wagering platforms as access to sports event contracts increased.

“Consumers are being presented with more options for how they can participate in online gaming, creating a more competitive landscape where a seamless digital experience is increasingly becoming part of the value proposition,” said Jason Wolf, president of Fullstory, in a statement. “The brands that understand how consumers are navigating, comparing, and engaging with their platforms in real-time can identify where friction is getting in the way of trust and retention.”

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“Nearly half of all respondents (45%) say they’ve borrowed money to place sports bets, with 13% taking out a personal loan to bankroll their betting and 11% securing funds through a high-interest payday loan,” the report continued.

Many sports bettors are unfazed by the high-stakes financial reality of gambling on sports.

U.S. News reported that only 17% conceded sports betting is negatively affecting their financial health. By contrast, twice as many respondents (34%) claimed gambling on professional and college sports has had a positive impact on their finances. About half (49%) reported that sports betting has not impacted their bank accounts either way.